Author: Song S. Qian
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351018779
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 416
Book Description
Modern ecological and environmental sciences are dominated by observational data. As a result, traditional statistical training often leaves scientists ill-prepared for the data analysis tasks they encounter in their work. Bayesian methods provide a more robust and flexible tool for data analysis, as they enable information from different sources to be brought into the modelling process. Bayesian Applications in Evnironmental and Ecological Studies with R and Stan provides a Bayesian framework for model formulation, parameter estimation, and model evaluation in the context of analyzing environmental and ecological data. Features: An accessible overview of Bayesian methods in environmental and ecological studies Emphasizes the hypothetical deductive process, particularly model formulation Necessary background material on Bayesian inference and Monte Carlo simulation Detailed case studies, covering water quality monitoring and assessment, ecosystem response to urbanization, fisheries ecology, and more Advanced chapter on Bayesian applications, including Bayesian networks and a change point model Complete code for all examples, along with the data used in the book, are available via GitHub The book is primarily aimed at graduate students and researchers in the environmental and ecological sciences, as well as environmental management professionals. This is a group of people representing diverse subject matter fields, who could benefit from the potential power and flexibility of Bayesian methods.
Bayesian Applications in Environmental and Ecological Studies with R and Stan
Author: Song S. Qian
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351018779
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 416
Book Description
Modern ecological and environmental sciences are dominated by observational data. As a result, traditional statistical training often leaves scientists ill-prepared for the data analysis tasks they encounter in their work. Bayesian methods provide a more robust and flexible tool for data analysis, as they enable information from different sources to be brought into the modelling process. Bayesian Applications in Evnironmental and Ecological Studies with R and Stan provides a Bayesian framework for model formulation, parameter estimation, and model evaluation in the context of analyzing environmental and ecological data. Features: An accessible overview of Bayesian methods in environmental and ecological studies Emphasizes the hypothetical deductive process, particularly model formulation Necessary background material on Bayesian inference and Monte Carlo simulation Detailed case studies, covering water quality monitoring and assessment, ecosystem response to urbanization, fisheries ecology, and more Advanced chapter on Bayesian applications, including Bayesian networks and a change point model Complete code for all examples, along with the data used in the book, are available via GitHub The book is primarily aimed at graduate students and researchers in the environmental and ecological sciences, as well as environmental management professionals. This is a group of people representing diverse subject matter fields, who could benefit from the potential power and flexibility of Bayesian methods.
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351018779
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 416
Book Description
Modern ecological and environmental sciences are dominated by observational data. As a result, traditional statistical training often leaves scientists ill-prepared for the data analysis tasks they encounter in their work. Bayesian methods provide a more robust and flexible tool for data analysis, as they enable information from different sources to be brought into the modelling process. Bayesian Applications in Evnironmental and Ecological Studies with R and Stan provides a Bayesian framework for model formulation, parameter estimation, and model evaluation in the context of analyzing environmental and ecological data. Features: An accessible overview of Bayesian methods in environmental and ecological studies Emphasizes the hypothetical deductive process, particularly model formulation Necessary background material on Bayesian inference and Monte Carlo simulation Detailed case studies, covering water quality monitoring and assessment, ecosystem response to urbanization, fisheries ecology, and more Advanced chapter on Bayesian applications, including Bayesian networks and a change point model Complete code for all examples, along with the data used in the book, are available via GitHub The book is primarily aimed at graduate students and researchers in the environmental and ecological sciences, as well as environmental management professionals. This is a group of people representing diverse subject matter fields, who could benefit from the potential power and flexibility of Bayesian methods.
Spatial Linear Models for Environmental Data
Author: Dale L. Zimmerman
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429595093
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
Book Description
Many applied researchers equate spatial statistics with prediction or mapping, but this book naturally extends linear models, which includes regression and ANOVA as pillars of applied statistics, to achieve a more comprehensive treatment of the analysis of spatially autocorrelated data. Spatial Linear Models for Environmental Data, aimed at students and professionals with a master’s level training in statistics, presents a unique, applied, and thorough treatment of spatial linear models within a statistics framework. Two subfields, one called geostatistics and the other called areal or lattice models, are extensively covered. Zimmerman and Ver Hoef present topics clearly, using many examples and simulation studies to illustrate ideas. By mimicking their examples and R code, readers will be able to fit spatial linear models to their data and draw proper scientific conclusions. Topics covered include: Exploratory methods for spatial data including outlier detection, (semi)variograms, Moran’s I, and Geary’s c. Ordinary and generalized least squares regression methods and their application to spatial data. Suitable parametric models for the mean and covariance structure of geostatistical and areal data. Model-fitting, including inference methods for explanatory variables and likelihood-based methods for covariance parameters. Practical use of spatial linear models including prediction (kriging), spatial sampling, and spatial design of experiments for solving real world problems. All concepts are introduced in a natural order and illustrated throughout the book using four datasets. All analyses, tables, and figures are completely reproducible using open-source R code provided at a GitHub site. Exercises are given at the end of each chapter, with full solutions provided on an instructor’s FTP site supplied by the publisher.
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429595093
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
Book Description
Many applied researchers equate spatial statistics with prediction or mapping, but this book naturally extends linear models, which includes regression and ANOVA as pillars of applied statistics, to achieve a more comprehensive treatment of the analysis of spatially autocorrelated data. Spatial Linear Models for Environmental Data, aimed at students and professionals with a master’s level training in statistics, presents a unique, applied, and thorough treatment of spatial linear models within a statistics framework. Two subfields, one called geostatistics and the other called areal or lattice models, are extensively covered. Zimmerman and Ver Hoef present topics clearly, using many examples and simulation studies to illustrate ideas. By mimicking their examples and R code, readers will be able to fit spatial linear models to their data and draw proper scientific conclusions. Topics covered include: Exploratory methods for spatial data including outlier detection, (semi)variograms, Moran’s I, and Geary’s c. Ordinary and generalized least squares regression methods and their application to spatial data. Suitable parametric models for the mean and covariance structure of geostatistical and areal data. Model-fitting, including inference methods for explanatory variables and likelihood-based methods for covariance parameters. Practical use of spatial linear models including prediction (kriging), spatial sampling, and spatial design of experiments for solving real world problems. All concepts are introduced in a natural order and illustrated throughout the book using four datasets. All analyses, tables, and figures are completely reproducible using open-source R code provided at a GitHub site. Exercises are given at the end of each chapter, with full solutions provided on an instructor’s FTP site supplied by the publisher.
Spatio-Temporal Models for Ecologists
Author: James Thorson
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1003851835
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 294
Book Description
Ecological dynamics are tremendously complicated and are studied at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Ecologists often simplify analysis by describing changes in density of individuals across a landscape, and statistical methods are advancing rapidly for studying spatio-temporal dynamics. However, spatio-temporal statistics is often presented using a set of principles that may seem very distant from ecological theory or practice. This book seeks to introduce a minimal set of principles and numerical techniques for spatio-temporal statistics that can be used to implement a wide range of real-world ecological analyses regarding animal movement, population dynamics, community composition, causal attribution, and spatial dynamics. We provide a step-by-step illustration of techniques that combine core spatial-analysis packages in R with low-level computation using Template Model Builder. Techniques are showcased using real-world data from varied ecological systems, providing a toolset for hierarchical modelling of spatio-temporal processes. Spatio-Temporal Models for Ecologists is meant for graduate level students, alongside applied and academic ecologists. Key Features: Foundational ecological principles and analyses Thoughtful and thorough ecological examples Analyses conducted using a minimal toolbox and fast computation Code using R and TMB included in the book and available online
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1003851835
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 294
Book Description
Ecological dynamics are tremendously complicated and are studied at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Ecologists often simplify analysis by describing changes in density of individuals across a landscape, and statistical methods are advancing rapidly for studying spatio-temporal dynamics. However, spatio-temporal statistics is often presented using a set of principles that may seem very distant from ecological theory or practice. This book seeks to introduce a minimal set of principles and numerical techniques for spatio-temporal statistics that can be used to implement a wide range of real-world ecological analyses regarding animal movement, population dynamics, community composition, causal attribution, and spatial dynamics. We provide a step-by-step illustration of techniques that combine core spatial-analysis packages in R with low-level computation using Template Model Builder. Techniques are showcased using real-world data from varied ecological systems, providing a toolset for hierarchical modelling of spatio-temporal processes. Spatio-Temporal Models for Ecologists is meant for graduate level students, alongside applied and academic ecologists. Key Features: Foundational ecological principles and analyses Thoughtful and thorough ecological examples Analyses conducted using a minimal toolbox and fast computation Code using R and TMB included in the book and available online
Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and Stan
Author: Franzi Korner-Nievergelt
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128016787
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 329
Book Description
Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN examines the Bayesian and frequentist methods of conducting data analyses. The book provides the theoretical background in an easy-to-understand approach, encouraging readers to examine the processes that generated their data. Including discussions of model selection, model checking, and multi-model inference, the book also uses effect plots that allow a natural interpretation of data. Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN introduces Bayesian software, using R for the simple modes, and flexible Bayesian software (BUGS and Stan) for the more complicated ones. Guiding the ready from easy toward more complex (real) data analyses ina step-by-step manner, the book presents problems and solutions—including all R codes—that are most often applicable to other data and questions, making it an invaluable resource for analyzing a variety of data types. - Introduces Bayesian data analysis, allowing users to obtain uncertainty measurements easily for any derived parameter of interest - Written in a step-by-step approach that allows for eased understanding by non-statisticians - Includes a companion website containing R-code to help users conduct Bayesian data analyses on their own data - All example data as well as additional functions are provided in the R-package blmeco
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128016787
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 329
Book Description
Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN examines the Bayesian and frequentist methods of conducting data analyses. The book provides the theoretical background in an easy-to-understand approach, encouraging readers to examine the processes that generated their data. Including discussions of model selection, model checking, and multi-model inference, the book also uses effect plots that allow a natural interpretation of data. Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN introduces Bayesian software, using R for the simple modes, and flexible Bayesian software (BUGS and Stan) for the more complicated ones. Guiding the ready from easy toward more complex (real) data analyses ina step-by-step manner, the book presents problems and solutions—including all R codes—that are most often applicable to other data and questions, making it an invaluable resource for analyzing a variety of data types. - Introduces Bayesian data analysis, allowing users to obtain uncertainty measurements easily for any derived parameter of interest - Written in a step-by-step approach that allows for eased understanding by non-statisticians - Includes a companion website containing R-code to help users conduct Bayesian data analyses on their own data - All example data as well as additional functions are provided in the R-package blmeco
Bayesian Hierarchical Models
Author: Peter D. Congdon
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429532903
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 487
Book Description
An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, this book demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach to data sets involving inferences for collections of related units or variables, and in methods where parameters can be treated as random collections. Through illustrative data analysis and attention to statistical computing, this book facilitates practical implementation of Bayesian hierarchical methods. The new edition is a revision of the book Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods. It maintains a focus on applied modelling and data analysis, but now using entirely R-based Bayesian computing options. It has been updated with a new chapter on regression for causal effects, and one on computing options and strategies. This latter chapter is particularly important, due to recent advances in Bayesian computing and estimation, including the development of rjags and rstan. It also features updates throughout with new examples. The examples exploit and illustrate the broader advantages of the R computing environment, while allowing readers to explore alternative likelihood assumptions, regression structures, and assumptions on prior densities. Features: Provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of applied Bayesian hierarchical modelling Includes many real data examples to illustrate different modelling topics R code (based on rjags, jagsUI, R2OpenBUGS, and rstan) is integrated into the book, emphasizing implementation Software options and coding principles are introduced in new chapter on computing Programs and data sets available on the book’s website
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429532903
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 487
Book Description
An intermediate-level treatment of Bayesian hierarchical models and their applications, this book demonstrates the advantages of a Bayesian approach to data sets involving inferences for collections of related units or variables, and in methods where parameters can be treated as random collections. Through illustrative data analysis and attention to statistical computing, this book facilitates practical implementation of Bayesian hierarchical methods. The new edition is a revision of the book Applied Bayesian Hierarchical Methods. It maintains a focus on applied modelling and data analysis, but now using entirely R-based Bayesian computing options. It has been updated with a new chapter on regression for causal effects, and one on computing options and strategies. This latter chapter is particularly important, due to recent advances in Bayesian computing and estimation, including the development of rjags and rstan. It also features updates throughout with new examples. The examples exploit and illustrate the broader advantages of the R computing environment, while allowing readers to explore alternative likelihood assumptions, regression structures, and assumptions on prior densities. Features: Provides a comprehensive and accessible overview of applied Bayesian hierarchical modelling Includes many real data examples to illustrate different modelling topics R code (based on rjags, jagsUI, R2OpenBUGS, and rstan) is integrated into the book, emphasizing implementation Software options and coding principles are introduced in new chapter on computing Programs and data sets available on the book’s website
Bayesian Essentials with R
Author: Jean-Michel Marin
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461486874
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 305
Book Description
This Bayesian modeling book provides a self-contained entry to computational Bayesian statistics. Focusing on the most standard statistical models and backed up by real datasets and an all-inclusive R (CRAN) package called bayess, the book provides an operational methodology for conducting Bayesian inference, rather than focusing on its theoretical and philosophical justifications. Readers are empowered to participate in the real-life data analysis situations depicted here from the beginning. Special attention is paid to the derivation of prior distributions in each case and specific reference solutions are given for each of the models. Similarly, computational details are worked out to lead the reader towards an effective programming of the methods given in the book. In particular, all R codes are discussed with enough detail to make them readily understandable and expandable. Bayesian Essentials with R can be used as a textbook at both undergraduate and graduate levels. It is particularly useful with students in professional degree programs and scientists to analyze data the Bayesian way. The text will also enhance introductory courses on Bayesian statistics. Prerequisites for the book are an undergraduate background in probability and statistics, if not in Bayesian statistics.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461486874
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 305
Book Description
This Bayesian modeling book provides a self-contained entry to computational Bayesian statistics. Focusing on the most standard statistical models and backed up by real datasets and an all-inclusive R (CRAN) package called bayess, the book provides an operational methodology for conducting Bayesian inference, rather than focusing on its theoretical and philosophical justifications. Readers are empowered to participate in the real-life data analysis situations depicted here from the beginning. Special attention is paid to the derivation of prior distributions in each case and specific reference solutions are given for each of the models. Similarly, computational details are worked out to lead the reader towards an effective programming of the methods given in the book. In particular, all R codes are discussed with enough detail to make them readily understandable and expandable. Bayesian Essentials with R can be used as a textbook at both undergraduate and graduate levels. It is particularly useful with students in professional degree programs and scientists to analyze data the Bayesian way. The text will also enhance introductory courses on Bayesian statistics. Prerequisites for the book are an undergraduate background in probability and statistics, if not in Bayesian statistics.
Bayesian Models
Author: N. Thompson Hobbs
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400866553
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 315
Book Description
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals. This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management. Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticians Covers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and more Deemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principles Explains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400866553
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 315
Book Description
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals. This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management. Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticians Covers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and more Deemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principles Explains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models
Doing Bayesian Data Analysis
Author: John Kruschke
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0124059163
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 772
Book Description
Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan, Second Edition provides an accessible approach for conducting Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. Included are step-by-step instructions on how to carry out Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs, as well as new programs in JAGS and Stan. The new programs are designed to be much easier to use than the scripts in the first edition. In particular, there are now compact high-level scripts that make it easy to run the programs on your own data sets. The book is divided into three parts and begins with the basics: models, probability, Bayes' rule, and the R programming language. The discussion then moves to the fundamentals applied to inferring a binomial probability, before concluding with chapters on the generalized linear model. Topics include metric-predicted variable on one or two groups; metric-predicted variable with one metric predictor; metric-predicted variable with multiple metric predictors; metric-predicted variable with one nominal predictor; and metric-predicted variable with multiple nominal predictors. The exercises found in the text have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment. This book is intended for first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates in statistics, data analysis, psychology, cognitive science, social sciences, clinical sciences, and consumer sciences in business. - Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random sampling - Examples with R programming language and JAGS software - Comprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-Bayesian textbooks: t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis) - Coverage of experiment planning - R and JAGS computer programming code on website - Exercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment - Provides step-by-step instructions on how to conduct Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0124059163
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 772
Book Description
Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan, Second Edition provides an accessible approach for conducting Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. Included are step-by-step instructions on how to carry out Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs, as well as new programs in JAGS and Stan. The new programs are designed to be much easier to use than the scripts in the first edition. In particular, there are now compact high-level scripts that make it easy to run the programs on your own data sets. The book is divided into three parts and begins with the basics: models, probability, Bayes' rule, and the R programming language. The discussion then moves to the fundamentals applied to inferring a binomial probability, before concluding with chapters on the generalized linear model. Topics include metric-predicted variable on one or two groups; metric-predicted variable with one metric predictor; metric-predicted variable with multiple metric predictors; metric-predicted variable with one nominal predictor; and metric-predicted variable with multiple nominal predictors. The exercises found in the text have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment. This book is intended for first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates in statistics, data analysis, psychology, cognitive science, social sciences, clinical sciences, and consumer sciences in business. - Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random sampling - Examples with R programming language and JAGS software - Comprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-Bayesian textbooks: t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis) - Coverage of experiment planning - R and JAGS computer programming code on website - Exercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment - Provides step-by-step instructions on how to conduct Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs
Statistical Modeling for Naturalists
Author: Pedro F. Quintana Ascencio
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN: 1527579530
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 210
Book Description
This book will allow naturalists, nature stewards, and graduate students to appreciate and comprehend basic statistical concepts as a bridge to more complex themes relevant to their daily work. Although there are excellent sources on more specialized analytical topics relevant to naturalists, this introductory book makes a connection with the experience and needs of field practitioners. It uses aspects of the natural history of the Florida scrub relevant for conservation and management as examples of analytical issues pertinent to the naturalist in a broader context. Each chapter identifies important ecological questions and then provides approaches to evaluate data, focusing on the analytical decision-making process. The book guides the reader on frequently overlooked aspects such as the understanding of model assumptions, alternative model specifications, model output interpretation, and model limitations.
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN: 1527579530
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 210
Book Description
This book will allow naturalists, nature stewards, and graduate students to appreciate and comprehend basic statistical concepts as a bridge to more complex themes relevant to their daily work. Although there are excellent sources on more specialized analytical topics relevant to naturalists, this introductory book makes a connection with the experience and needs of field practitioners. It uses aspects of the natural history of the Florida scrub relevant for conservation and management as examples of analytical issues pertinent to the naturalist in a broader context. Each chapter identifies important ecological questions and then provides approaches to evaluate data, focusing on the analytical decision-making process. The book guides the reader on frequently overlooked aspects such as the understanding of model assumptions, alternative model specifications, model output interpretation, and model limitations.
Ecological Models and Data in R
Author: Benjamin M. Bolker
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691125228
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 408
Book Description
Introduction and background; Exploratory data analysis and graphics; Deterministic functions for ecological modeling; Probability and stochastic distributions for ecological modeling; Stochatsic simulation and power analysis; Likelihood and all that; Optimization and all that; Likelihood examples; Standar statistics revisited; Modeling variance; Dynamic models.
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691125228
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 408
Book Description
Introduction and background; Exploratory data analysis and graphics; Deterministic functions for ecological modeling; Probability and stochastic distributions for ecological modeling; Stochatsic simulation and power analysis; Likelihood and all that; Optimization and all that; Likelihood examples; Standar statistics revisited; Modeling variance; Dynamic models.