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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789289468596
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In this study a set of basic stylised facts characterising euro area macroeconomic fluctuations are computed with reference to two concepts of the business cycle (classical business cycles and deviation or growth cycles) from 1960 to 2002. These stylised facts, computed on the basis of alternative turning point dating methods and alternative reference measures of the cycle, are discussed and compared to the corresponding ones for the US business cycle. Overall, the study suggests that: i) significant variation of characteristics can be detected across cycles for both fluctuation concepts ; ii) classical business cycles are much less frequent than deviation cycles; iii) the phases of classical cycles tend to be asymmetric, both in terms of duration and amplitude, while regimes of deviation cycles appear to be relatively symmetric; iv) very similar regularities characterise euro area and US fluctuations, one main exception being that the US economy experienced more frequent classical cycles, with a somewhat shorter average duration; v) there is no clear evidence that the duration or amplitude of phases has gradually declined over time, apart from US classical cycle recessions.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789289468596
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
In this study a set of basic stylised facts characterising euro area macroeconomic fluctuations are computed with reference to two concepts of the business cycle (classical business cycles and deviation or growth cycles) from 1960 to 2002. These stylised facts, computed on the basis of alternative turning point dating methods and alternative reference measures of the cycle, are discussed and compared to the corresponding ones for the US business cycle. Overall, the study suggests that: i) significant variation of characteristics can be detected across cycles for both fluctuation concepts ; ii) classical business cycles are much less frequent than deviation cycles; iii) the phases of classical cycles tend to be asymmetric, both in terms of duration and amplitude, while regimes of deviation cycles appear to be relatively symmetric; iv) very similar regularities characterise euro area and US fluctuations, one main exception being that the US economy experienced more frequent classical cycles, with a somewhat shorter average duration; v) there is no clear evidence that the duration or amplitude of phases has gradually declined over time, apart from US classical cycle recessions.
Author: Lucrezia Reichlin
Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research
ISBN: 1898128839
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 103
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Book Description
Author: Domenico Giannone
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant change associated with the EMU can be detected. For the other countries, volatility has been historically higher and this has not changed in the last ten years. We also find that the aggregate euro area per-capita GDP growth since 1999 has been lower than what could have been predicted on the basis of historical experience and US observed developments. The gap between US and euro area GDP per capita level has been 30% on average since 1970 and there is no sign of catching up or of further widening.
Author: Lucrezia Reichlin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Jarko Fidrmuc
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Tiivistelmä.
Author: Alberto Alesina
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226012859
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 477
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Book Description
It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.
Author: Christian Gayer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484338499
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
Author: Massimiliano Giuseppe Marcellino
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
In this paper we compare alternative approaches for dating the Euro area business cycle and analyzing its characteristics. First, we extend a commonly used dating procedure to allow for length, size and amplitude restrictions, and to compute the probability of a phase change. Second, we apply the modified algorithm for dating both the classical Euro area cycle and the deviation cycle, where the latter is obtained by a variety of methods, including a modified HP filter that reproduces the features of the BK filter but avoids end-point problems, and a production function based approach. Third, we repeat the dating exercise for the main Euro area countries, evaluate the degree of syncronization, and compare the results with the UK and the US. Fourth, we construct indices of business cycle diffusion, and assess how spread are cyclical movements throughout the economy. Finally, we repeat the dating exercise using monthly industrial production data, to evaluate whether the higher sampling frequency can compensate the higher variability of the series and produce a more accurate dating.
Author: Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Mannheim)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Book Description
"This study analyses business cycle synchronisation in the euro area and beyond from different angles. First, a comprehensive survey of the relevant literature is provided in chapter 2. The em-pirical analysis starts in chapter 3 with the determination of output gaps as the most important indi-cator of the cyclical stance of the economies. Different methods are applied to account for the un-certainty surrounding the estimation of this unobserved variable. Then, cross-country correlations of the output gaps and their evolution over time are determined. A cluster analysis is undertaken in order to identify countries sharing similar business cycle characteristics. Time-varying patterns in euro area business cycle synchronisation may be a reflection of global phenomena, rather than being genuine to the euro area. Therefore, the findings for the euro area are put into a global per-spective. In particular, business cycle co-movement is analysed also for the EU countries outside the euro area, the OECD countries in general, and for the states within the US as well as within the group of the G7 countries."--p. iii.
