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Author: Roger Guesnerie
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262262903
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 498
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Book Description
A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test. The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure. Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.
Author: Roger Guesnerie
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262262903
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 498
Get Book Here
Book Description
A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test. The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure. Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.
Author: R. Guesnerie
Publisher: Mit Press
ISBN: 9780262072588
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 455
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Book Description
A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test.
Author: M. Hashem Pesaran
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
ISBN: 9780631168850
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 325
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Book Description
Author: Preston J. Miller
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262631556
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 534
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Book Description
These 21 readings describe the orgins and growth of the macroeconomic analysis known as "rational expectations". The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s to the 1990s.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Richard E. Just
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475735839
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 580
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Book Description
After all the research on agricultural risk to date, the treatment of risk in agricultural research is far from harmonious. Many competing risk models have been proposed. Some new methodologies are largely untested. Some of the leading empirical methodologies in agricultural economic research are poorly suited for problems with aggregate data where risk averse behavior is less likely to be important. This book is intended to (i) define the current state of the literature on agricultural risk research, (ii) provide a critical evaluation of economic risk research on agriculture to date and (iii) set a research agenda that will meet future needs and prospects. This type of research promises to become of increasing importance because agricultural policy in the United States and elsewhere has decidedly shifted from explicit income support objectives to risk-related motivations of helping farmers deal with risk. Beginning with the 1996 Farm Bill, the primary set of policy instruments from U.S. agriculture has shifted from target prices and set aside acreage to agricultural crop insurance. Because this book is intended to have specific implications for U.S. agricultural policy, it has a decidedly domestic scope, but clearly many of the issues have application abroad. For each of the papers and topics included in this volume, individuals have been selected to give the strongest and broadest possible treatment of each facet of the problem. The result is this comprehensive reference book on the economics of agricultural risk.
Author: Gilles Saint-Paul
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 140082477X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 206
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Book Description
Karl Marx predicted a world in which technical innovation would increasingly devalue and impoverish workers, but other economists thought the opposite, that it would lead to increased wages and living standards--and the economists were right. Yet in the last three decades, the market economy has been jeopardized by a worrying phenomenon: a rise in wage inequality that has left a substantial portion of the workforce worse off despite the continuing productivity growth enjoyed by the economy. Innovation and Inequality examines why. Studies have firmly established a link between this worrying trend and technical change, in particular the rise of new information technologies. In Innovation and Inequality, Gilles Saint-Paul provides a synthetic theoretical analysis of the most important mechanisms by which technical progress and innovation affect the distribution of income. He discusses the conditions under which skill-biased technical change may reduce the wages of the least skilled, and how improvements in information technology allow "superstars" to increase the scale of their activity at the expense of less talented workers. He shows how the structure of demand changes as the economy becomes wealthier, in ways that may potentially harm the poorest segments of the workforce and economy. An essential text for graduate students and an indispensable resource for researchers, Innovation and Inequality reveals how different categories of workers gain or lose from innovation, and how that gain or loss crucially depends on the nature of the innovation.
Author: Robert E. Lucas
Publisher: U of Minnesota Press
ISBN: 1452908281
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 335
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Book Description
Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.
Author: Martin Masuch
Publisher: Diplomica Verlag
ISBN: 3842882971
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 81
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Book Description
The modern economic world is characterized by a vast number of different customer requirements, products, and variations of products, as well as ideas, meanings, opinions, and arguments. Marketing activities are nowadays embedded in a complex world characterized by a multitude of interdependencies and interrelations between different stakeholders and interest groups. Hitherto, economic systems, and above all marketing strategies, strive to separate concerns in order to control the whole. The development of autonomous and stand-alone marketing concepts in the past reflects this paradigm. To cope with the global and networked conditions of the presence, suitable strategies have to be designed which are able to manage the requirements of transitional relationships. The combination of transverse reason and the open society as well as the conceptual transfer to the field of marketing leads to the concept of reason-oriented marketing. The generic character of reason-oriented marketing is enabled by methodical patterns which presents solutions to selected aspects of the marketing process. These patterns constitute generic blueprints for sample solutions that can be systematically arranged to design a strategic implementation of reasonable thinking within the marketing process. The patterns consider particularly the relationships and interactions between the interest groups of the macro environment, by integrating: -the perception and recognition of needs, interests, and requirements of the macro environment. -the association and combination of different rational aspects to form a holistic viewpoint on the totality of arguments and opinions. -the foresight in terms of future impacts and consequences of marketing decisions and instruments. -the principles of criticism and discourse to enable a dialog between the involved stakeholders and interest groups. -the ability to change perspectives systematically within the entirety of rational aspects. -the management of transitions between the core marketing processes and the interest groups of the macro environment. -the justice of decisions and procedures within the marketing process to ensure fairness and appreciation concerning different interests and arguments. -the cooperation and participation between the participants of the marketing process and the interest groups of the surrounding macro environment. The reason-oriented marketing approach enables the involved parties in the field of marketing to contribute their needs and interests to the marketing process and to develop reasonable concepts of products that consider the requirements of the stakeholders as well as the constraints and conditions of the macro environment. In fact, reason-oriented marketing is not designed to replace traditional marketing strategies and concepts, but rather to integrate them into a universal approach to marketing. The concept of reason-oriented marketing widens the perspective of marketing into greater awareness and responsibility for our future.
Author: Massimo Florio
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 9781849804776
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 329
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Book Description
This book makes a unique contribution in advancing understanding of the fiscal condition and growth potential of the New Member States of the European Union. It provides new data, policy evaluation, and offers national and regional perspectives. The core research questions are the effect of public investment in the context of macroeconomic disequilibrium and how it is possible to finance capital accumulation in the present and future conditions of mounting public sector debt. The contributors reveal that there is now a convincing case for public investment as an essential driver of convergence and growth in Europe. However, a new international and inter-generational fiscal pact to frame a more optimistic view of the role of government is needed. This book explores how public investment matters for growth, how fiscal conditions may support investment, and the role EU regional policy can have in terms of structural change and investment needs. Public Investment, Growth and Fiscal Constraints provides new data analyses on the EU New Member States in Central and Eastern Europe making it an essential tool for academics, students and practitioners interested in public finance and European Economics. The structural and public finance issues in these former transition economies raised in this book will also strongly appeal to policymakers, officials and consultants. The book is based on an independent research project of the University of Milan, supported by the European Investment Bank.
