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Author: Luis Serven
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Unanticipated changes in the real exchange rate affect investment through their impact on the desired capital stock, whose direction depends on a number of factors and is in general ambiguous. In contrast, anticipated changes can also have an important effect on the optimal timing of investment, in a direction that depends on the financial openness of the economy and on the important content of capital goods. This issue is explored using a simple macroeconomic model.
Author: Luis Serven
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Unanticipated changes in the real exchange rate affect investment through their impact on the desired capital stock, whose direction depends on a number of factors and is in general ambiguous. In contrast, anticipated changes can also have an important effect on the optimal timing of investment, in a direction that depends on the financial openness of the economy and on the important content of capital goods. This issue is explored using a simple macroeconomic model.
Author: Jerome L. Stein
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198293062
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273
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Book Description
Existing models fail to explain the large fluctuations in the real exchange rates of most currencies over the past twenty years. The Natural Real Exchange Rate approach (NATREX) taken here offers an alternative paradigm to those which focus on short-run movements of nominal eschange rates, purchasing power parity of the representative agent intertemporal optimization models. Yet it is also neo-classical in its stress upon the accepted fundamentals driving a real economy. It concentrates on the real exchange rate, and explains medium- tolong-run movements in equilibrium real exchange rates in terms of fundamental variables: the productivity of capital and social (public plus private) thrift at home and abroad. The NATREX approach is a family of growth models, each tailored to the characteristics of the countries considered. The authors explain the real international value of the US dollar relativ to the G10 countries, and the US current account. These are two large economies. The model is also applied to small economies, where it explains the real value of the Australian dollar and the Latin American currencies relative to the US dollar. The model is relevant for developing countries where the foreign debt is a concern. Finally, it is applied to two medium-sized economies to explain the bilateral exchange rate between the French franc and the Deutsche Mark. The authors demonstrate both the promise of the NATREX model and its applicability to economies large and small. Alongside the analysis, econometrics, and technical details of these case studies, the introductory chapter explains in accessible terms the rationale behind the approach. The mix of theory and empirical evidence makes this book relevant to academics and advanced graduate students, and to central banks, ministries of finance, and those concerned with the foreign debt of developing countries.
Author: Steve Brito
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484356349
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
We show that the response of firm-level investment to real exchange rate movements varies depending on the production structure of the economy. Firms in advanced economies and in emerging Asia increase investment when the domestic currency weakens, in line with the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. However, in other emerging market and developing economies, as well as some advanced economies with a low degree of structural economic complexity, corporate investment increases when the domestic currency strengthens. This result is consistent with Diaz Alejandro (1963)—in economies where capital goods are mostly imported, a stronger real exchange rate reduces investment costs for domestic firms.
Author: Luis Servén
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Capital stock
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
Serven examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210781
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Author: José Campa
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Author: Falkmar Butgereit
Publisher: Diplomica Verlag
ISBN: 383669543X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
Still after more than thirty years of free floating exchange rates, large parts of exchange rate dynamics remain a puzzle. As this book shows, much progress has been made in explaining exchange rate movements over longer horizons. It also shows, however, that short-run movements are far more challenging to explain. The book is based upon a variety of papers, many of them released recently. A key aspiration of the literature has always been not only to explain past exchange rate behavior but also to forecast out of sample and to compare it to the simple random walk outcome. Here some development has been made after Meese and Rogoff's (1983) truculent verdict of the performance of common exchange rate models. By means of empirical analysis and descriptive statistics this book further supports the established long-run relationships between exchange rates and fundamentals such as expected productivity growth, real GDP growth, domestic investment, interest rates, inflation, government spending, and current account balances. It finds that these fundamentals affect the exchange rate to varying degrees over time. Turning to short-term exchange rate dynamics, it turns out that a different set of forces is at play. The key to explaining short-run movements is to be found in an extensive micro-foundation that factors in a pronounced heterogeneity among market participants and information asymmetries, as well as the possibility of sudden shifts in sentiment, beliefs, and the degree of risk aversion. Promising results have been obtained by order-flow analysis and high frequency data. Also, the consideration of chartism and speculators facilitates understanding for otherwise puzzling exchange rate movements. The last attempt to tackle the understanding of exchange rate behavior is the use of frequency domain analysis and in particular spectral analysis which tries to track down any cyclical patterns in the various moments of time series. And as we shall see forex indeed incorpor
Author: Eliana A. Cardoso
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
Author: Benoît Mercereau
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451853238
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
The paper presents an N-country model with stock markets, in which a closed-form solution for the real exchange rate is derived. Risky asset prices and allocation of risky assets among countries are determined endogenously. Such a framework allows an analysis of how fundamental parameters, such as the variance and covariance of the risky assets or demographic variables, affect the real exchange rate. The predictions of the model are contrasted with the Balassa-Samuelson effect. A new transmission channel of the real exchange rate for parameters such as income on net foreign assets, risk aversion, and risk-hedging opportunities is also explored.
Author: John Y. Campbell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange market
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Conventional wisdom holds that conservative investors should avoid exposure to foreign currency risk. Even if they hold foreign equities, they should hedge the currency exposure of these positions and should hold only domestic Treasury bills. This paper argues that the conventional wisdom may be wrong for long-term investors. Domestic bills are risky for long-term investors, because real interest rates vary over time and bills must be rolled over at uncertain future interest rates. This risk can be hedged by holding foreign currency if the domestic currency tends to depreciate when the domestic real interest rate falls, as implied by the theory of uncovered interest parity. Empirically this effect is important and can lead conservative long-term investors to hold more than half their wealth in foreign currency.
