An Empirical Comparison of Forward- and Spot-rate Models for Valuing Interest-rate Options PDF Download
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Author: Wolfgang Bühler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Author: Wolfgang Bühler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Author: Juan M. Moraleda
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Using daily caps and floors market prices throughout the years 1993 and 1994, we address the open question whether spot or forward interest-rate models of the term structure provide a better fit to market prices of options. In particular, we compare the Hull and White (1994), Pelsser (1996) and Black and Karasinski (1991) models with Gaussian, square root and proportional models as developed by Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (1995). Interestingly, we find that all spot interest-rate models outperform their similar counterparts in the forward rate setting. Furthermore, we test a number of humped volatility models obtained as extensions of the above-mentioned models under both approaches, and due to Mercurio and Moraleda (1996a and 1996b) and Moraleda and Vorst (1996). The fit to market option prices is largely improved (around 30 percent) by all humped volatility models under the spot interest-rate setting. Things are different for forward interest-rate models since we find strictly decreasing volatility structures for all maturities. An exception are forward rate models with deterministic volatility functions, for which humped shapes in the volatility are typically found. The results in this paper are consistent with previous studies, although they partly disagree with results of Bliss and Ritchken (1996).
Author: Antoon Pelsser
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Using daily caps and floors market prices throughout the years 1993 and 1994, we address the open question whether spot or forward interest-rate models of the term structure provide a better fit to market prices of options. In particular, we compare the Hull and White (1994), Pelsser (1996) and Black and Karasinski (1991) models with Gaussian, square root and proportional models as developed by Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (1995). Interestingly, we find that all spot interest-rate models outperform their similar counterparts in the forward rate setting. Furthermore, we test a number of humped volatility models obtained as extensions of the above-mentioned models under both approaches, and due to Mercurio and Moraleda (1996a and 1996b) and Moraleda and Vorst prices is largely improved (around 30 percent) by all humped volatility models under the spot interest-rate setting. Things are different for forward interest-rate models since we find strictly decreasing volatility structures for all maturities. An exception are forward rate models with deterministic volatility functions, for which humped shapes in the volatility are typically found. The results in this paper are consistent with previous studies, although they partly disagree with results of Bliss and Ritchken (1996).
Author: Wolfgang Bühler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
This article presents the first comprehensive comparative study of alternative models for valuing interest rate options. One and two factor inversion models of the Hull/White type and one and two factor Heath/J arrow/Morton models are considered. The valuation models are assessed by different criteria which are of considerable importance for the practical use of the models. To assess empirical performance, the models are tested on an identical set of bond warrant data. Not only the empirical quality, however, but also the practical problems in implementing the different approaches contribute to the differentiation of the models.
Author: Frank J. Fabozzi
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047144698X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 530
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Book Description
This ultimate guide contains an excellent blend of theory and practice This comprehensive guide covers various aspects of model building for fixed income securities and derivatives. Filled with expert advice, valuable insights, and advanced modeling techniques, Interest Rate, Term Structure, and Valuation Modeling is a book that all institutional investors, portfolio managers, and risk professionals should have. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is proud to be the publisher of the esteemed Frank J. Fabozzi Series. Comprising nearly 100 titles-which include numerous bestsellers—The Frank J. Fabozzi Series is a key resource for finance professionals and academics, strategists and students, and investors. The series is overseen by its eponymous editor, whose expert instruction and presentation of new ideas have been at the forefront of financial publishing for over twenty years. His successful career has provided him with the knowledge, insight, and advice that has led to this comprehensive series. Frank J. Fabozzi, PhD, CFA, CPA, is Editor of the Journal of Portfolio Management, which is read by thousands of institutional investors, as well as editor or author of over 100 books on finance for the professional and academic markets. Currently, Dr. Fabozzi is an adjunct Professor of Finance at Yale University's School of Management and on the board of directors of the Guardian Life family of funds and the Black Rock complex of funds.
Author: Michael Jacobs
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This study compares continuous-time stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility models of interest rate derivatives, examining these models across several dimensions: different classes of models, factor structures, and pricing algorithms. We consider a broader universe of pricing models, using improved econometric and numerical methodologies. We establish several criteria for model quality that are motivated by financial theory as well as practice: realism of the assumed stochastic process for the term structure, consistency with no-arbitrage or financial market equilibrium, consistency with financial practice, parsimony, as well as computational efficiency. A model which scores well along these grounds will also exhibit superior pricing performance with regard to traded interest rate options. This helps resolve the controversies over the stochastic process for yield curve dynamics, the models that best manage and measure interest rate risk, and theories of the term structure that are supported by empirical results. We perform econometric experiments at three levels: the short rate, bond prices, as well as interest rate derivatives. We extend CKLS (1992) to a broader class of single factor spot rate models and international interest rates. We find that a single-factor general parametric model (1FGPM) of the term structure, with non-linearity in the drift function, better captures the time series dynamics of US 30 Day T-Bill rates. The 1FGPM not only forecasts interest rate changes out-of-sample better relative to other parametric models, but also relative to the non-parametric model of Jiang (1998). Finally, our results vary greatly across international markets. Building upon the work of Longstaff and Schwartz (1992), we perform a statistical analysis of the U.S. default-free term structure over the period 4:1964 to 10:1997. We utilize a constant correlation multivariate GARCH principal components analysis (CCM-PCA), and identify at least three factors associated with traditional measures of risk in the fixed income literature (level, slope, and curvature) that capture 98% of the variation in the default-free term structure. We perform tests of various term structure models on US Treasury bonds, comparing a two factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (2FCIR) model with a multi-layer perceptron neural network approach (MLP-ANN), in pricing and hedging discount bonds. We find that while the MLP-ANN can better fit bond prices in-sample, the 2F-CIR model is superior in hedging against unanticipated changes in the short rate and its volatility. Furthermore, we find the 2FCIR model to perform favorably in comparison to the CCM-PCA, MLP-ANN, as well as the 1FGPM in forecasting bond yield changes. Finally, we compare various interest rate bond option pricing models, in their ability to price interest rate derivatives and manage and interest rate risk. We compare three approaches to pricing interest rate derivatives: spot rate (e.g., CIR), forward-rate (i.e., HJM), and non-parametric models (e.g., multivariate kernel estimation.) This is extended to a broader factor structure. While the best model in terms of mean square error (MSE) is the non parametric (MNWK) model, the 3 factor jump diffusion (3FGJD) model performs best among parametric models. In hedging analysis, while these preferred models still outperform within each grouping, the non parametric model is no longer the best performing model, while the 2FCIR is the best model in hedging options in terms of MSE.
Author: Niraj Sinha
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Author: Rajna Gibson
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601983727
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 171
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Book Description
Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.
Author: Damiano Brigo
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3540417729
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 564
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Book Description
The 2nd edition of this successful book has several new features. The calibration discussion of the basic LIBOR market model has been enriched considerably, with an analysis of the impact of the swaptions interpolation technique and of the exogenous instantaneous correlation on the calibration outputs. A discussion of historical estimation of the instantaneous correlation matrix and of rank reduction has been added, and a LIBOR-model consistent swaption-volatility interpolation technique has been introduced. The old sections devoted to the smile issue in the LIBOR market model have been enlarged into a new chapter. New sections on local-volatility dynamics, and on stochastic volatility models have been added, with a thorough treatment of the recently developed uncertain-volatility approach. Examples of calibrations to real market data are now considered. The fast-growing interest for hybrid products has led to a new chapter. A special focus here is devoted to the pricing of inflation-linked derivatives. The three final new chapters of this second edition are devoted to credit. Since Credit Derivatives are increasingly fundamental, and since in the reduced-form modeling framework much of the technique involved is analogous to interest-rate modeling, Credit Derivatives -- mostly Credit Default Swaps (CDS), CDS Options and Constant Maturity CDS - are discussed, building on the basic short rate-models and market models introduced earlier for the default-free market. Counterparty risk in interest rate payoff valuation is also considered, motivated by the recent Basel II framework developments.
Author: Turan G. Bali
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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This paper compares the empirical performance of a wide variety of well-known diffusion models - with particular emphasis on the Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) term structure model - in capturing the dynamic behavior of interest rate volatility. Many popular models are nested within a more flexible time-varying BDT framework that allows us to determine the appropriate specification of the spot rate process. The empirical results for the one-month Treasury yields indicate that the equilibrium models that do not allow the drift and diffusion parameters to vary over time and parameterize the volatility only as a function of interest rate levels fail to model adequately the serial correlation in conditional variances. On the other hand, the serial-correlation-based arbitrage-free models with time-dependent parameters in the drift and diffusion functions may fail to capture adequately the relationship between interest rate levels and volatility. The results also suggest that time-varying volatilities within the BDT framework may lead to non-recombining binomial trees that increase the storage requirements and computational cost substantially in pricing interest rate contingent claims.
