An Analysis of the Determinants of Housing Transaction Prices in Hong Kong and Macau PDF Download
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 412
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 412
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Author: Hyung-Gun Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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This paper analyzes the determinants of housing prices in Hong Kong by using property transaction data of condominium units from Taikoo Shing, one of the largest real estate properties in Hong Kong. We use a hedonic pricing model for the empirical analysis and estimate the model by using the Box-Cox quantile regression method. The empirical results show that this method provides a more comprehensive description of housing price determinants. Housing prices and characteristics have a nonlinear relationship, and this relationship varies across all quantiles. In addition, the response of housing prices to various housing characteristics varies across quantiles. For example, an increase in the size of the gross floor area is more valued at higher quantiles. Other variables have differential effects on housing prices across the distribution of housing prices. We also perform a simple simulation for model predictability and show that our model outperforms other models which have been frequently used in the previous studies.
Author: Mr.R. Sean Craig
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463925948
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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This paper uses an econometric model of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR to assess the effectiveness of alternative policies in slowing the increase in property prices. The rapid rise in property prices is well explained by macroconomic fundamentals; real GDP per capital, real domestic credit, construction costs, land supply, and the real interest rate. Policy can influence the property market though land supply and prudential and tax policy, with the latter policies taking the form of a stamp duty on property transactions and a tighter loan-to-value ratio (LTV) on lending. Land supply is the most effective policy insturment for restraining property price increases but it operates with a significant lag. The LTV and stamp duty dampen speculative activity that drives up property prices. While these policies can slow the increase in the short run, they should be guided by their long run objectives of financial stability and counteracting speculation.
Author: Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Hong Kong, China's housing market witnessed dramatic appreciations recently, with the price index for private domestic housing units being 3 times higher than 10 years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors, as illustrated in this paper. By providing a theoretical model and empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices, we find that changes in housing price index reinforce price trends in the long term. Hong Kong, China's dollar quantitative easing, and the gross domestic product of the People's Republic of China (PRC) are positively related to housing prices and negatively to lending. The inability to increase supplies in response to rising demand since 2003 has also much to do with the skyrocketing prices. Moreover, mortgage-to-total loans value is shrinking due to the unaffordability of housing units at current prices. This trend has to be tackled in time, otherwise the PRC may incur severe consequences similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s.
Author: Sako Musterd
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1788115600
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 456
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The Handbook of Urban Segregation scrutinises key debates on spatial inequality in cities across the globe. It engages with multiple domains, including residential places, public spaces and the field of education. In addition it tackles crucial group-dimensions across race, class and culture as well as age groups, the urban rich, middle class, and gentrified households. This timely Handbook provides a key contribution to understanding what urban segregation is about, why it has developed, what its consequences are and how it is measured, conceptualised and framed.
Author: Christoph Duenwald
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451841756
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.
Author: Yet-Fhang Daniel Lo
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
ISBN: 9781361326961
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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This dissertation, "Factors Affecting Spatial Autocorrelation in Housing Prices: an Empirical Study of Hong Kong" by Yet-fhang, Daniel, Lo, 羅奕宏, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Real estate economists and practitioners have been cognizant of spatial autocorrelation in housing prices for more than three decades. In the early days, they relied to a huge extent on techniques developed in statistical science and focused exclusively on its identification and quantitative assessment in housing studies. It has been well-acknowledged that the presence of spatial autocorrelation in housing prices will compromise the applicability of conventional hedonic statistics, which may lead to biased and inconsistent estimates. In light of this, recent studies in the area have spawned an immense literature aimed at devising sophisticated econometric models such as hedonic spatial lag model and hedonic error model as correction methods. Interestingly, the underpinning factors attributing to its existence remain relatively theoretically unexplored due perhaps to a paucity of quality goereferenced housing data as well as the indifferent attitude espoused by the researchers. Although some general propositions regarding its causes have been proposed, they are accused of lacking inferential basis. Acknowledging the above research gap, this thesis attempts to investigate the underlying factors affecting the formation of, and change in, spatial autocorrelation in housing prices. Specifically, we conjecture that spatial autocorrelation is crucially determined by one of the economic workings of the housing market-price determination process. It is posited that the occurrence of the spatial phenomenon is a direct consequence of how market participants in search of past information in the market ascertain current housing prices. Specifically, spatial autocorrelation is deemed to be established, or increase, when property traders infer current housing prices from past sales of properties (i.e. comparables) located in the same neighborhood as the subject houses. Based on the above information search framework, we put forward three hypotheses to facilitate our examination. First, it is hypothesized that market volatility depresses spatial autocorrelation. As in any other commodity market, past sales transactions in real estate are important sources of price information, which become more obsolescent, and hence, fail to be a good price signal when the market is more volatile. Traders are compelled to rely less on past sales in establishing the current prices of the housing units. Accordingly, spatial autocorrelation will be diminished; following broadly the same line of logic, the second hypothesis is constructed, which states that market liquidity (defined as total market transaction volume) dampens spatial autocorrelation. Given that market liquidity reflects the amount of price information being circulated in the market, traders in accessing property values in a "thick" market do not have to necessarily infer from comparables that are located further away from the subject properties. Hence, a weaker spatial autocorrelation relationship between prices is resulted; third, building age is a critical factor in assessing a house's redevelopment potential, whose value is largely independent of the transaction prices of the surrounding housing units. Given that a house's total value can be perceived as an addition of its use value and redevelopment value (i.e. real option value of redevelopment), and that the former's role decreases whereas the latter's increases
Author: Si-ming Li
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Author: Eloisa T. Glindro
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 62
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Author: Chun-Wah Li
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781361286203
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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This dissertation, "Spatial Autocorrelation and Liquidity in Hong Kong's Real Estate Market" by Chun-wah, Li, 李振華, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Spatial autocorrelation is commonly found in the Hedonic Pricing model for real estate prices, but little attention has been paid to identify the causes behind. The primary objective of this research is to examine the causes of spatial autocorrelation in housing prices. Observed autocorrelation is often attributable to the omission of important location characteristics in the modelling process. Since it is practically impossible to exhaustively include all location characteristics, some variables may eventually be omitted, leaving spatially autocorrelated residuals in the Hedonic Pricing model. This thesis proposes a new source of spatial autocorrelation: real estate market liquidity. We hypothesize that liquidity affects the geographical boundary within which buyers and sellers search for price information. When the "immediate vicinity" of a property has few transactions, buyers and sellers may have to search for price information from more distant locations. Therefore, low liquidity in the vicinity of a property should strengthen the spatial autocorrelation of real estate prices. A Spatial - Liquidity Hedonic Pricing (SLHP) model is proposed to test the above hypothesis. The SLHP model generalizes traditional spatial autoregressive models by making the spatial process liquidity dependent. When applied to the apartment market in Hong Kong, the model is operationalized by defining "immediate vicinity" as the building where the subject unit locates. Furthermore, the SLHP model recognizes that past transactions may affect current transactions, but not vice versa, so the spatial weight matrix is simply lower triangular. Under this condition, we have shown that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation is equivalent to the Ordinary Least Squares Estimation. This greatly simplifies the estimation procedures and reduces the empirical analysis to a feasible scale. Based on 15 500 transactions of residential units in Taikooshing, Hong Kong from 1992 to 2006, we conclude that while positive spatial autocorrelation is present in housing prices, its magnitude decreases when liquidity, as measured by the past transaction volume in the immediate vicinity of a subject unit, is high. In addition, we found that current prices are spatially correlated with transactions occurred up to the last three months only, reflecting the relatively high information efficiency of Hong Kong's residential market. All these results are generally robust across a variety of distance, liquidity, and time weight specifications. This study establishes liquidity as a determinant of spatial autocorrelation in real estate prices. This is a new finding contributing to the economic literature on liquidity effects and technical literature on spatial estimation. Our results not only reveal the spatially dependent price formation process in the real estate market, but also have practical applications on the hedonic modelling of real estate prices for mass valuation and index construction. DOI: 10.5353/th_b4727800 Subjects: Real property - Prices - Statistical methods - China - Hong Kong
