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Author: Charles L. Beck (CAPT, USAF., Jr)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Airframes
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
Author: Charles L. Beck (CAPT, USAF., Jr)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Airframes
Languages : en
Pages : 193
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 165
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Book Description
This report is part of a project responding to a call by the U.S. Air Force to update cost estimating methodologies for new weapons systems-in particular, fighter aircraft. The Air Force was concerned that Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) based on older aircraft did not adequately reflect the acquisition and manufacturing environment within which a new fighter, such as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) would be produced. This report is one of a series, all of which address some aspect of how to incorporate the new DoD acquisition and manufacturing environments into historical cost estimating relationships or methodologies (See Younossi, Graser, and Kennedy, 2001; Lorell and Graser, 2001). Using the CER methodology for example, the cost of a future aircraft is estimated as a function of its physical or characteristics or other program variables, using a series of equations wherein the performance and program variables are inputs, and cost or labor hours are the outputs. To create these equations, actual costs (or labor hours) to produce previous aircraft are collected and used as the dependent variables in statistical regression analysis. Explanatory variables typically include such factors as cumulative production quantity, annual production rate, such aircraft characteristics as weight and speed, and others. The resulting equations are referred to as "cost estimating relationships," or CERs. Obviously, the ability of these equations to forecast future systems costs hinges on how well past performance is a predictor of the future.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This report is part of a project responding to a call by the U.S. Air Force to update cost estimating methodologies for new weapons systems-in particular, fighter aircraft. The Air Force was concerned that Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) based on older aircraft did not adequately reflect the acquisition and manufacturing environment within which a new fighter, such as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) would be produced. This report is one of a series, all of which address some aspect of how to incorporate the new DoD acquisition and manufacturing environments into historical cost estimating relationships or methodologies (See Younossi, Graser, and Kennedy, 2001; Lorell and Graser, 2001). Using the CER methodology for example, the cost of a future aircraft is estimated as a function of its physical or characteristics or other program variables, using a series of equations wherein the performance and program variables are inputs, and cost or labor hours are the outputs. To create these equations, actual costs (or labor hours) to produce previous aircraft are collected and used as the dependent variables in statistical regression analysis. Explanatory variables typically include such factors as cumulative production quantity, annual production rate, such aircraft characteristics as weight and speed, and others. The resulting equations are referred to as "cost estimating relationships," or CERs. Obviously, the ability of these equations to forecast future systems costs hinges on how well past performance is a predictor of the future.
Author: Ronald Wayne Hess
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Airframes
Languages : en
Pages : 118
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Book Description
This report presents generalized equations for estimating the development and production costs of aircraft airframes. It provides separate cost estimating relationships (CERs) for engineering, tooling, manufacturing labor, and quality-control hours; manufacturing material, development support, and flight-test cost; and total program cost. The CERs, expressed in the form of exponential equations, were derived from a database consisting of 34 military aircraft with first flight dates ranging from 1948 to 1978. In addition to the basic objective of developing an updated set of airframe CERs, the study also examined three specific possibilities for improving CER accuracy: (1) stratifying the full estimating sample into subsamples representing major differences in aircraft type; (2) incorporating variables describing program structure and airframe construction characteristics; and (3) for the fighter aircraft only, incorporating an objective technology index into the equations.
Author: Charles L Beck (Jr)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 205
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Book Description
Airframe RDT & E costs are invariably predicted by utilizing one general cost estimating relationship (CER) regardless of aircraft type(fighter, attack, or bomber/cargo). This practice results in inconsistent and often very significant inaccuracies in predicting weapon system development costs which may affect subsequent program funding. This thesis examines the utility of a unique CER for each aircraft type to be used for estimating airframe development costs. The methodology consisted of factor analysis and step-wise multiple regression analysis. Based on the results, the authors concluded that the unique CERs are consistently and significantly more accurate when estimating airframe RDT & E costs than the general CERs developed by former studies. The results of this study should be applicable to those organizations dealing with the procurement of aircraft airframes. (Author).
Author: Roland Kankey
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461232023
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
The environment for today's cost estimator and analyst is certainly very challenging. Computerization, software, robots, composites, uncertainty, and inte grated systems all challenge the applicability of our existing tools and techniques. These Proceedings serve to document some of the completed and on-going re search in the dynamic world of costing. This document is published in conjunction with the first Society of Cost Es timating and Analysis (SCEA) National Conference, held in Boston, MA, June 19-21,1991. It serves to foster and promote cost research, and to provide a forum to report these findings in furtherance of public interest. This volume is the third of the series. The first and second were published in conjunction with the 1989 ICNNES Joint Conference in Washington, D.C., and the 1990 ICNNES Joint Conference in Los Angeles. My thanks to our Editors, Professor Jane Robbins and Dr. Roland Kankey; our Managing Editor, Mr. Frank Hett; the Program Chair, Ms. Ann-Marie Sweet; and all those who contributed. R. R. Crum, President Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis PREFACE We wish to thank the professionals who submitted papers to us for review. As any editor will indicate, you cannot review or publish papers that are not sub mitted. The articles in this Proceedings successfully completed the referee process. Each of these authors was rewarded by an additional cycle of minor changes, word processing, and express mailings.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
Good cost estimates can make important contributions to effective acquisition policy. RAND has a long history of producing cost-estimating methodologies. Two of its more recent studies are Hess and Romanoff (1987) and Resetar, Rogers, and Hess (1991). This report both updates and extends these earlier studies, focusing on the effects of material mix, manufacturing technique, and part geometric complexity on cost. We collected two types of information on these effects. First, we surveyed the military airframe industry for estimates of how aircraft production costs vary with airframe structure material mix. Second, we analyzed a large set of actual part data from recent aircraft manufacturing efforts that we collected from industry. We also estimated a set of airframe relationships (CERs) for labor hours based on MACDAR, a historical airframe database. We then integrated the effects of material mix into these estimates.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 2
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Book Description
Since the end of the Cold War, large-scale reductions in defense allocations have prompted both the Department of Defense and Congress to place an increasingly high premium on the affordability of weapon systems. Yet many aircraft contractors and government program managers have long maintained that government cost estimators have consistently overestimated the costs of such systems by virtue of their reliance on outdated forecasting methodologies. The generation of more timely cost-estimating models would thus appear to form the cornerstone of sound acquisition policy. In Military Airframe Costs: The Effects of Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Processes, RAND researchers Obaid Younossi, Michael Kennedy, and John C. Graser address this issue by updating existing cost-estimating methodologies in the critical area of military airframes. After providing basic background information on the various materials that are used to produce airframe structures, the authors discuss the relative advantages of both traditional and evolving manufacturing techniques. Drawing from an industry survey as well as from part-manufacturing data, they then analyze how the cost of producing airframe structures varies with material mix, manufacturing technique, and part geometric complexity. The data thus derived are then integrated with those from a comprehensive historical cost database to yield a more accurate means of generating airframe cost projections.
Author: R. W. Hess
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
This Note is part of a series of Notes that derive a set of equations suitable for estimating the acquisition costs of various types of aircraft airframes in the absence of detailed design and manufacturing information. A single set of equations was selected as being the most representative and applicable to the widest range of estimating situations. For attack aircraft, no single acceptable estimating relationship could be identified because sample sizes were small and not homogeneous. Estimates for these aircraft should be developed by analogy or by using the equation set developed for all mission types. Keywords: Airframes, Cost estimates, Procurement, Military aircraft, Attack aircraft, Equations. (SDW).
Author: Ronald Wayne Hess
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Airframes
Languages : en
Pages : 160
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Book Description
"This Note is part of a series that derives a set of equations suitable for estimating the acquisition costs of various types of aircraft airframes in the absence of detailed design and manufacturing information. A single set of equations was selected as being the most representative and applicable to the widest range of estimating situations. For fighters, the equation set uses airframe unit weight as the variable."--Rand abstracts
