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Author: Backus David
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium but theory has been largely unsuccessful in producing a risk premium with the requisite properties. We characterize the risk premium in a general arbitrage-free setting and describe the features a theory must have to account for the anomaly. In affine models the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that we abandon the common requirement that interest rates be strictly positive.
Author: Backus David
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium but theory has been largely unsuccessful in producing a risk premium with the requisite properties. We characterize the risk premium in a general arbitrage-free setting and describe the features a theory must have to account for the anomaly. In affine models the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that we abandon the common requirement that interest rates be strictly positive.
Author: David Backus
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate, when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium, but theory has been largely unsuccessful in producing a risk premium with the requisite properties. We characterize the risk premium in a general arbitrage-free setting and describe the features a theory must have to account for the anomaly. In affine models, the anomaly requires either that state variables have asymmetric effects on state prices in different currencies or that we abandon the common requirement that interest rates be strictly positive.
Author: J. Benson Durham
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Forward foreign exchange contracts embed not only expected depreciation but also a sizable premium, which complicates inferences about anticipated returns. This study derives arbitrage-free affine forward currency models (AFCMs) with closed-form expressions for both unobservable variables. Model calibration to forward term structures of eleven U.S.-dollar currency pairs from the mid-to-late 1990s through early 2014 fits the data closely and suggests that the premium is indeed nonzero and variable, but not to the degree implied by previous econometric studies.
Author: Alexander Wugalter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 168
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Book Description
Author: Alessandro Gnoatto
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
We introduce a tractable multi-currency model with stochastic volatility and correlated stochastic interest rates that takes into account the smile in the FX market and the evolution of yield curves. The pricing of vanilla options on FX rates can be performed efficiently through the FFT methodology thanks to the affinity of the model. A joint calibration exercise of the implied volatility surfaces of a triangle of FX rates shows the flexibility of our framework in dealing with the typical symmetries that characterize the FX market. Our framework is also able to describe many non trivial links between FX rates and interest rates: a second calibration exercise highlights the ability of the model to fi t simultaneously FX implied volatilities while being coherent with interest rate products.
Author: Bing Han
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We propose a multi-currency quadratic term structure model that allows for several sources of market incompleteness. A new feature of the model is the jump-quadratic dynamics of the exchange rates that simultaneously generate greater flexibility in the time-varying risk premium and excessive currency volatility. Our model empirically outperforms the complete market quadratic and affine multi-currency diffusion models. It accounts for the forward premium anomaly with reasonable market price of risks. The market incompleteness consists of idiosyncratic diffusion-like innovations and jump discontinuities. We find that the jumps dominate the variations in the currency returns and produce most of the excessive currency volatility.
Author: Shu Wu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
Author: Rajna Gibson
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601983727
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 171
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Book Description
Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.
Author: Darrell Duffie
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bonds
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
In the setting of affine' jump-diffusion state processes, this paper provides an analytical treatment of a class of transforms, including various Laplace and Fourier transforms as special cases, that allow an analytical treatment of a range of valuation and econometric problems. Example applications include fixed-income pricing models, with a role for intensityy-based models of default, as well as a wide range of option-pricing applications. An illustrative example examines the implications of stochastic volatility and jumps for option valuation. This example highlights the impact on option 'smirks' of the joint distribution of jumps in volatility and jumps in the underlying asset price, through both amplitude as well as jump timing.
