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Author: George M. von Furstenberg
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401578737
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 493
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Book Description
Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.
Author: George M. von Furstenberg
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401578737
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 493
Get Book Here
Book Description
Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262331713
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 350
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Book Description
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author: Manish Soni
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Study Aids
Languages : en
Pages : 458
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Book Description
This book is structured to cater to both beginners and those with some prior knowledge of AI. If you are new to the field, start from the beginning and work your way through each chapter. If you have some experience with AI, feel free to jump to specific chapters that interest you the most. We encourage you to actively engage with the material by attempting the exercises, working on projects, and using the online resources provided. AI is a hands-on field, and practical experience is invaluable.
Author: Oliver Sauter
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 365804974X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 223
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Book Description
Oliver Sauter analyzes three aspects of monetary policy under uncertainty. First he shows that the terms risk and uncertainty are often wrongly used as synonyms despite their different meanings. The second aspect is the proper examination and incorporation of uncertainty into a monetary policy framework. The author undertakes systematization with a closer look at each identified form of uncertainty. Thirdly, he focuses on the quantification of uncertainty from two different perspectives, either from a market perspective or from a central bank perspective.
Author: Jan Österberg
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400928793
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 277
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Book Description
1. The Aim of This Essay Ethical Egoism, the doctrine that, roughly speaking, one should promote one's own good, has been a live issue since the very beginnings of moral philosophy. Historically, it is the most widely held normative theory, and, next to Utilitarianism, it is the most intensely debated one. What is at stake in this debate is a fundamental question of ethics: 'Is there any reason, except self-interest, for considering the interests of other people?' The ethical egoist answers No to this question, thus rejecting the received conception of morality. Is Ethical Egoism an acceptable position? There are many forms of Ethical Egoism, and each may be interpreted in several different ways. So the relevant question is rather, 'Is there an acceptable version of Ethical It is the main aim of this essay to answer this question. This Egoism?' means that I will be confronted with many other controversial questions, for example, 'What is a moral principle?', 'Is value objective or subjec tive?', 'What is the nature of the self?' For the acceptability of most ver sions of Ethical Egoism, it has been alleged, depends on what answers are given to questions such as these. (I will show that in some of these cases there is in fact no such dependence. ) It is, of course, impossible to ad equately discuss all these questions within the compass of my essay.
Author: Alan Lacey
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317489985
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
Although best known for the hugely influential Anarchy, State and Utopia, Robert Nozick (1938-2002) eschewed the label 'political philosopher' because the vast majority of his writings and attention have focused on other areas. Indeed the breadth of Nozick's work is perhaps greater than that of any other contemporary philosopher. This book is the first to give full and proper discussion of Nozick's philosophy as a whole, including his influential work on the theory of knowledge, his notion of 'tracking the truth', his metaphysical writings on personal identity and free will, his evolutionary account of rationality, his varying treatments of Newcomb's paradox and his ideas on the meaning of life. Illuminating and informative, the book will be welcomed as an authoritative guide to Nozick's philosophical thinking.
Author: International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence
Publisher: Morgan Kaufmann
ISBN: 9781558604803
Category : Artificial intelligence
Languages : en
Pages : 1720
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Book Description
Author: Harmut Behr
Publisher: McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
ISBN: 0228020867
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 131
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Book Description
Western modernity is characterized by instrumental relations between humans and nature, as well as between humans themselves, that have caused irreversible environmental and social exploitation and degradation. Many policy documents, such as those by the United Nations Environment Programme, warn of the uncertainty and unpredictability of our precarious conditions due to our social and ecological interrelations and interdependencies. Accepting that our position in the world does not allow us secure knowledge of the consequences of politics, Reversibility – Politics under Conditions of Uncertainty asks how we can act politically in a responsible way when we cannot predict the outcomes of our decisions. Hartmut Behr diagnoses Western modernity and its manifold crises as dominated by the view that fellow humans and natural environments are merely means to our individual ends. Behr introduces a novel ethics of self-restraint and the principle of reversibility – a commitment to political actions whose effects shall not be indefinite or immutable – to build a policy framework that demands both ethical and practical reflection on the conditions of action and that accounts for the limitations under which we act and live. Identifying an urgent need for re-thinking political progress and for policy reform, Reversibility – Politics under Conditions of Uncertainty presents a new understanding of the self and of political responsibility centred in a genuine acknowledgment of the human condition.
Author: Daniel Williams
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009436112
Category : Literary Criticism
Languages : en
Pages : 345
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Book Description
Daniel Williams shows how, in a profoundly numerical age, Victorian novels imagined thought and action in the face of uncertainty.
Author: W. Messner
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137340576
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 463
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Book Description
Providing the necessary background information and hands-on tools to build compelling business cases, this book will increase the reader's capability to champion new business development ideas, take them to senior management, and facilitate the decision process by understanding the key theories and practices of finance and corporate investments.
