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Author: Simo Särkkä
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110703065X
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 255
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Book Description
A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.
Author: Simo Särkkä
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110703065X
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 255
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Book Description
A unified Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.
Author: Johan Dahlin
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
ISBN: 9176857972
Category :
Languages : sv
Pages : 139
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Book Description
Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.
Author: Christian Robert
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441915753
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 297
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Book Description
This book covers the main tools used in statistical simulation from a programmer’s point of view, explaining the R implementation of each simulation technique and providing the output for better understanding and comparison.
Author: James E. Gentle
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387216111
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 427
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Book Description
Will provide a more elementary introduction to these topics than other books available; Gentle is the author of two other Springer books
Author: Yurij Holovatch
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813232110
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 412
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Book Description
This book is the fifth volume of papers on advanced problems of phase transitions and critical phenomena, the first four volumes appeared in 2004, 2007, 2012, and 2015. It aims to compile reviews in those aspects of criticality and related subjects that are of current interest. The seven chapters discuss criticality of complex systems, where the new, emergent properties appear via collective behaviour of simple elements. Since all complex systems involve cooperative behaviour between many interconnected components, the field of phase transitions and critical phenomena provides a very natural conceptual and methodological framework for their study.As the first four volumes, this book is based on the review lectures that were given in Lviv (Ukraine) at the 'Ising lectures' — a traditional annual workshop on phase transitions and critical phenomena which aims to bring together scientists working in the field of phase transitions with university students and those who are interested in the subject.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dissertations, Academic
Languages : en
Pages : 946
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Book Description
Author: W.R. Gilks
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482214970
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 505
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Book Description
In a family study of breast cancer, epidemiologists in Southern California increase the power for detecting a gene-environment interaction. In Gambia, a study helps a vaccination program reduce the incidence of Hepatitis B carriage. Archaeologists in Austria place a Bronze Age site in its true temporal location on the calendar scale. And in France,
Author: Jason Sanders
Publisher: Addison-Wesley Professional
ISBN: 0132180138
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 524
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Book Description
CUDA is a computing architecture designed to facilitate the development of parallel programs. In conjunction with a comprehensive software platform, the CUDA Architecture enables programmers to draw on the immense power of graphics processing units (GPUs) when building high-performance applications. GPUs, of course, have long been available for demanding graphics and game applications. CUDA now brings this valuable resource to programmers working on applications in other domains, including science, engineering, and finance. No knowledge of graphics programming is required—just the ability to program in a modestly extended version of C. CUDA by Example, written by two senior members of the CUDA software platform team, shows programmers how to employ this new technology. The authors introduce each area of CUDA development through working examples. After a concise introduction to the CUDA platform and architecture, as well as a quick-start guide to CUDA C, the book details the techniques and trade-offs associated with each key CUDA feature. You’ll discover when to use each CUDA C extension and how to write CUDA software that delivers truly outstanding performance. Major topics covered include Parallel programming Thread cooperation Constant memory and events Texture memory Graphics interoperability Atomics Streams CUDA C on multiple GPUs Advanced atomics Additional CUDA resources All the CUDA software tools you’ll need are freely available for download from NVIDIA. http://developer.nvidia.com/object/cuda-by-example.html
Author: Jun S. Liu
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387763716
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 350
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Book Description
This book provides a self-contained and up-to-date treatment of the Monte Carlo method and develops a common framework under which various Monte Carlo techniques can be "standardized" and compared. Given the interdisciplinary nature of the topics and a moderate prerequisite for the reader, this book should be of interest to a broad audience of quantitative researchers such as computational biologists, computer scientists, econometricians, engineers, probabilists, and statisticians. It can also be used as a textbook for a graduate-level course on Monte Carlo methods.
Author: Arnaud Doucet
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475734379
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 590
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Book Description
Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in many fileds. They have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques.
