Author: Federico M. Bandi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
We argue that the persistence properties of financial market volatility need to be taken into account when carrying out inference about volatility measures, for example when assessing the relation between realized and implied volatility series. If these volatility measures display long memory, as often argued in recent work, then the conventional predictive regression between implied volatility (regressor) and realized volatility over the remaining life of the option (regressand) appears to be a (fractional) cointegrating relation. Since cointegration is associated with long-run comovements, this finding modifies the usual interpretation of such regression as a study towards assessing option market efficiency (based on a certain option pricing model) and/or short-term unbiasedness of implied volatility as a predictor of realized volatility. In this paper we use spectral methods and exploit the potential long memory in the data to design an econometric methodology which is robust to the various issues that the literature on the relation between implied and realized volatility has proposed as plausible explanations (measurement errors and presence of an unobservable time-varying risk premium, for instance) for an estimated slope coefficient less than one, implying biasedness, in the standard predictive regression. Our evidence in favor of long-run unbiasedness is rather strong. Little can be said about market efficiency and/or short-term unbiasedness which were the objects of the previous studies.
Author: Bent J. Christensen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Author: Euan Sinclair
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470181990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.
Author: Suhas A. Sridharan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
I examine whether financial statement information can predict future realized volatility incremental to the volatility implied by option market prices. Prior research establishes that option-implied volatility is a biased estimator of future realized volatility. I hypothesize that financial statement information, by providing information about economic events correlated with future volatility, is informative in the prediction of future volatility and not fully incorporated in either past volatility or the market's expectation of future volatility. I confirm this empirically and show that the finding is robust to the measurement of option-implied volatility using either the Black-Scholes formula or a model-free approach. I also document abnormal returns to an option-based trading strategy that takes a long (short) position in firms with financial statement information indicative of high (low) future volatility. Additionally, I provide evidence that contradicts a risk-based explanation for the incremental predictive ability of accounting information. Taken together, my results indicate that the market's failure to fully process accounting-based fundamental information explains some of the previously documented bias in implied volatility.
Author: Bent Jesper Christensen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We propose a simple model in which realized stock market return volatility and implied volatility backed out of option prices are subject to common level shifts corresponding to movements between bull and bear markets. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter in a generalization to the multivariate case of the univariate level shift technique by Lu and Perron (2008). An application to the S&P500 index and a simulation experiment show that the recently documented empirical properties of strong persistence in volatility and forecastability of future realized volatility from current implied volatility, which have been interpreted as long memory (or fractional integration) in volatility and fractional co-integration between implied and realized volatility, are accounted for by occasional common level shifts.
Author: Federico M. Bandi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We argue that the predictive regression between implied volatility (regressor) and realized volatility over the remaining life of a European option (regressand) is likely to be a fractional cointegrating relation. Because cointegration is associated with long-run comovements, this classical regression cannot be used to test for option market efficiency and short-term unbiasedness of implied volatility as a predictor of realized volatility. Using narrow-band spectral methods, we provide consistent estimates of the long-run relation between implied and realized volatility even when implied volatility is measured with error and/or volatility is priced but the volatility risk premium is unobservable. Although little can be said about short-term unbiasedness, our results largely support a notion of long-run unbiasedness of implied volatility as a predictor of realized volatility.
Author: Colin Bennett
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781461108757
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 316
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Book Description
This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council
Author: Doug Huggins
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118477219
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 389
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Book Description
As western governments issue increasing amounts of debt, the fixed income markets have never been more important. Yet the methods for analyzing these markets have failed to keep pace with recent developments, including the deterioration in the credit quality of many sovereign issuers. In Fixed Income Relative Value Analysis, Doug Huggins and Christian Schaller address this gap with a set of analytic tools for assessing value in the markets for government bonds, interest rate swaps, and related basis swaps, as well as associated futures and options. Taking a practitioner’s point of view, the book presents the theory behind market analysis in connection with tools for finding and expressing trade ideas. The extensive use of actual market examples illustrates the ways these analytic tools can be applied in practice. The book covers: Statistical models for quantitative market analysis, in particular mean reversion models and principal component analysis. An in-depth approach to understanding swap spreads in theory and in practice. A comprehensive discussion of the various basis swaps and their combinations. The incorporation of credit default swaps in yield curve analysis. A classification of option trades, with appropriate analysis tools for each category. Fitted curve techniques for identifying relative value among different bonds. A multi-factor delivery option model for bond future contracts. Fixed Income Relative Value Analysis provides an insightful presentation of the relevant statistical and financial theories, a detailed set of statistical and financial tools derived from these theories, and a multitude of actual trades resulting from the application of these tools to the fixed income markets. As such, it’s an indispensable guide for relative value analysts, relative value traders, and portfolio managers for whom security selection and hedging are part of the investment process.
Author: John C. Cox
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 518
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Book Description
Includes the first published detailed description of option exchange operations, the first published treatment using only elementary mathematics and the first step-by-step procedure for implementing the Black-Scholes formula in actual trading.
Author: Michael C. Thomsett
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319566350
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 345
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Book Description
This book is written for the experienced portfolio manager and professional options traders. It is a practical guide offering how to apply options math in a trading world that demands mathematical measurement. Every options trader deals with an array of calculations: beginners learn to identify risks and opportunities using a short list of strategies, while researchers and academics turn to advanced technical manuals. However, almost no books exist for the experienced portfolio managers and professional options traders who fall between these extremes. Michael C. Thomsett addresses this glaring gap with The Mathematics of Options, a practical guide with actionable tools for the practical application of options math in a world that demands quantification. It serves as a valuable reference for advanced methods of evaluating issues of pricing, payoff, probability, and risk. In his characteristic approachable style, Thomsett simplifies complex hot button issues—such as strategic payoffs, return calculations, and hedging options—that may be mentioned in introductory texts but are often underserved. The result is a comprehensive book that helps traders understand the mathematic concepts of options trading so that they can improve their skills and outcomes.
